Programme

P.20 -- Posters, VCTP-51

Date: Tuesday, 4 August 2026

Time: 09:30 - 10:30

In silico disease outbreak dynamics using stochastically-resetting 2D Ising and Blume-Capel models

Vladimir P. Villegas (1), Freya Luna Corbito (2), Oracle Michael Ariel Geraldez (3), Kimi Simanero (4), Franz Somera (3), Em-Em B. Lamento-Villegas (5)

(1) Mapua University; (2) Mapua University Senior High School; (3) Philippine Science High School-Main Campus; (4) Philippine Science High School-Cagayan Valley Campus; (5) University of the Philippines Manila

Two-dimensional lattice models are useful tools simulating dynamics of infectious diseases in a population. This study uses a stochastically-resetting Ising model to simulate a simple contagion, for which the spin-up denotes healthy individuals and vice versa. On the other hand, the spin-1 Blume-Capel model is run through algorithms as an alternative to the known suspected-infected-recovered model of epidemics. Both two-dimensional models at critical temperatures are subject to a four-part algorithm to represent waves of the outbreak, changes in an individual’s state, spread or containment of the disease, and social restrictions. Results show a random final state for different cases. Furthermore, a higher number of initially infected individuals can cause more waves as indicated by the number of stochastic resets.

Presenter: Lamento-Villegas Barbarona Em-Em