Programme

P.58 -- Poster, VCTP-45

Date: Tuesday, 13 October 2020

Time: 08:30 - 10:00

A Toy Model for Prediction of Pandemics

Chu Thuy Anh, Nguyen Van Hoa, and Nguyen Tri Lan

Institute of Physics, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, 18 Hoang Quoc Viet, Ha Noi, Viet Nam Faculty of Physics, Hochiminh City University of Education, 280 An Duong Vuong, Hochiminh City, Viet Nam

The logistic map is well–known as a simple but capable model that exhibits chaotic behaviors in nonlinear dynamics systems. First, this model was proposed as a discrete-time demographic model in the statistical study of population, then widely applied in biological, physical, and sociological research, in which system behavior is unpredicted due to its complexity. In this report, a modified version of the logistic map is proposed to study the relationship between the growth rate in the logistic map and the initial conditions of the model. The results obtained from the calculations indicate the dependence of the growth rate on the model’s initial conditions, thereby providing a control parameter for the critical growth rate where bifurcation happens. Application of these results in the COVID-19 outbreak investigation may show an effective measure of the health system’s competence and readiness to intervene and control the prevention of disease spread in the community.

Presenter: Nguyễn Văn Hoa

Presentation file: