Programme

P.28 -- Poster, VCTP-46

Date: Tuesday, 5 October 2021

Time: 08:30 - 10:00

A new Developement for Prediction of Covid-19 Pandemics

Chu Thuy Anh(1), Nguyen Van Hoa(2), and Nguyen Tri Lan(1)

1) Institute of Physics, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, 18 Hoang Quoc Viet, Ha Noi, Viet Nam 2) Faculty of Physics, Hochiminh City University of Education, 280 An Duong Vuong, Hochiminh City, Viet Nam

In previous studies, a modified version of the logistic model with baseline conditions added as an indicator of effective antiviral capacity including that of the community and health system has been proposed and demonstrated. Calculations based on the proposed model have shown that infection rates in the community can be managed and controlled through variation of baseline conditions. However, this simple model has not been able to predict the recurrence of the infection rate when the initial conditions change due to the emergence of new viral strains. In this report, a further investigation of the dependence of the antiviral capacity index on the infection rate and the emergence of new viral strains modeled by the variation of the so-called growth rate is investigated. The results obtained from the calculations on the model allow to explain the "wave phenomenon" of the infection rate during the epidemic of the past two years, the interval between the peaks of infection, and the trend in community immunity due to the effects of vaccination.

Presenter: Chu Thuy Anh